The adjusted paid and owner occupancy rate is the number of nights filled per nights available, removing nights held for maintenance. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, a 2020 adjusted paid and owner occupancy rate that is similar to 2019 is an indicator of recovery. Recent bookings have improved the short-term occupancy forecast for areas that have reopened, but have not greatly impacted July and August occupancy rates.
How to interpret the graphs:
- The charts show the difference between 2020 and 2019 adjusted paid and owner occupancy rate, as of two different dates.
- The blue line is the difference in pacing between 2020 and 2019 as of May 20. The black line is the difference in pacing between 2020 and 2019 as of two weeks ago on May 6.
- The y-axis displays the change between the two years (for example, 10% means a 10% increase in adjusted paid occupancy for 2020 over 2019).
- When the blue and black lines are above zero, occupancy is pacing higher than last year. When they are below zero, occupancy is pacing lower than last year.
- The area shaded in green is the improvement in the occupancy pacing due to bookings made in the last two weeks.
Here’s what to take away:
- Baldwin County, FL, the Texas Gulf Coast, and the Tennessee Smokies have all seen large increases in booking activity and arrivals as the states have re-opened, which has improved occupancy rates and pacing.
- Due to the increase in reservations over the last few weeks, occupancy for 2020 is now higher than in 2019 through mid- to late-May.
- Reservations made in the last two weeks improved occupancy pacing for the month of June but the month is still lagging behind last year.
- Reservations made in the last two weeks have primarily been for arrivals between mid-May and July 1. After July 1, the blue and black lines meet again.
- In order for markets to completely recover, the blue line must be equal to zero. For these markets, that doesn’t happen until mid- to late- July.
Although tremendous progress has been made to recover reservations in the past two weeks, there is still a long way to go.